31 October 2025 at 21:53 UTC
Currently trading at $61.19 per barrel, crude looks set to end this week’s trading in the red.
Unable to pare losses made during Tuesday’s sell-off, where crude pricing fell around 2.23%, WTI trades 0.90% higher in today’s session, and crucially, remains above the key psychological level of $60.
What’s next for crude oil?
WTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): Key takeaways 31/10/2025
- Still down just over 1% for the week, WTI crude has found some support in today’s session, following reports that the United States might be planning strikes against Venezuelan military installations
- Markets are undecided on the effectiveness of fresh US sanctions on Russian oil giants Lukoil and Rosneft, with the Kremlin’s indifferent response last week reducing the risk-premium in crude pricing
- On the supply side, OPEC+ recently confirmed plans for a modest production increase of 137,000 barrels in December, suggesting a level of comfort regarding the current global crude supply
WTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): The glut narrative
Doesn’t sound very nice, does it?
While a rising dollar certainly doesn’t help oil pricing, the current rhetoric within crude markets remains unchanged from previous coverage: oversupply.
With that said, and while I’m hesitant to say the winds of change are fully blowing, I’d be comfortable in saying that a faint breeze is currently blowing across the oil markets, owing to some recent developments.
Let’s discuss.
WTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): Fundamental Analysis 31/10/2025
Rumours of United States military action in Venezuela
To start with a positive for oil pricing, today’s rally comes after reports that the Unites States would be performing some kind of military action in Venezuela, a founding member of OPEC.
Nineteenth by volume of crude production in 2024, the headlines offer a supply-side tail risk to oil pricing, which the markets have received as positive for crude pricing.
While Trump and his administration have consistently accused Venezuela and its government of allowing the export of illegal narcotics into the United States, he spoke earlier today to deny any involvement.
Reporter: “There are reports that you are considering strikes within Venezuela. Is that true? Has any decision been made on that?”
DJT: “No, it’s not true”
It would seem, however, that markets are less convinced, especially with the increased US military presence in the Caribbean Ocean in recent weeks.
As can be expected, developments such as these threaten global oil supply, which boosts pricing – as seen in today’s session.
The effectiveness of US sanctions on Russian crude exports now in question
Used primarily as a bargaining tool to encourage Putin to return to the negotiating table regarding the Russia-Ukraine conflict, markets are seriously questioning the effectiveness of recent sanctions.
While predictably, the Kremlin made comments shortly after the announcement to suggest that the domestic Russian oil industry would be unaffected by new American sanctions, markets are now taking these comments more seriously.
This goes double for Vladimir Putin, who went on record to say he would not be “cowed” by other nations into making concessions about Ukraine, while simultaneously boasting about the success of new nuclear technology.
While it is understandable that Trump wants to target Russian fossil fuels, with the three largest companies by revenue in Russia, Lukoil, Rosneft, and Gazprom, all being energy corporations, it will take more supply-side risk to secure higher pricing for WTI, which is on pace for its worst yearly performance since 2020.
As expected, the level of risk premium priced into WTI markets has reduced significantly this week, not only due to the above, but also because of the market’s inherent nature: sudden news events often cause the markets to overreact.
OPEC+ agrees on modest December output increase
Earlier in your reading, you may recall that I mentioned a potential shift in the status quo for crude, with the latest news from OPEC+ being what I was referring to.
With a meeting due this coming Sunday, the group leans towards a modest increase in output throughout December of 137,000 barrels, meeting the same target as September and October.
Of course, an increase in supply with demand unchanged is inherently oil price negative, but considering OPEC has opted for a modest increase in production three months consecutively, markets are beginning to read between the lines:
OPEC+ are becoming increasingly comfortable with the global oil supply
If nothing else, this begins to limit the downside potential of crude, with current supply levels unlikely to be hiked significantly going forward.
WTI Crude (West Texas Intermidiate): Technical Analysis 31/10/2025
WTI (WTICOUSD): Daily (D1) chart analysis:
In the spirit of honesty, my analysis remains broadly unchanged from my coverage, with much of the same analysis remaining valid.
By a few technical metrics, including the 10-period SSL channel, there is evidence of some bullish fight in the market, but the overarching trend remains bearish.
If the second price target can be achieved, however, this paves the way for further bullish momentum, especially considering the limited downside from the OPEC+ side of things.
To the downside, support can be found at the 20-period moving average and the key psychological level of $60. If the latter is to be breached, we can expect a sharp sell-off towards the lows made in mid-October.
Price targets and support/resistance levels:
- Price target #1 – Previous support turned resistance – $62.56
- Price target #2 – $63.56 – 61.8% Fib
- Support #1 – $60.18 – 20-period SMA
- Support #2 – $60.00 – Key psychological level
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About the Author
Christian Norman
Financial Writer
Christian Norman is a Financial Writer for OANDA, offering market commentary on both a technical and fundamental basis.
With years of experience as a trader, his passion for market technicals helps guide his analysis across a broad range of asset classes and instruments.
Christian Norman is a Financial Writer for OANDA, offering market commentary on both a technical and fundamental basis.
With years of experience as a trader, his passion for market technicals helps guide his analysis across a broad range of asset classes and instruments.
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