Oil took another pipeline lower as recent headlines reduced supply route concerns for one of its bigger producers.
The initially secret discussions for a Ukraine-Russia peace plan, initiated by the US, have taken a much more serious shape.
An original Russian-drafted 28-point plan—similar to the one proposed for Gaza—had earlier been publicized but was subject to fierce debate among European leaders, as the guarantees would not play in Ukraine’s or the EU’s favor, particularly clauses regarding the recognition of occupied Ukrainian territory like Crimea and Donetsk as Russian.
A revised 19-point plan has hence emerged in the past day, with ABC News reporting that “the Ukrainians have agreed to a peace deal”, though there are still details to be sorted out.
The agreement is described by officials as a “living paper,” implying that many clauses remain subject to change as negotiations evolve. The rest of the war now hinges on whether Russia accepts the terms.
This major geopolitical development has sent Oil back below the $57.50 mark, more than 2.50% lower.
Still stuck in descending, choppy trading, Oil presents some interesting technical looks as fundamentals swing again.
Let’s dive right into the charts for Black Gold.
US Oil (WTI) Multi-timeframe Technical Analysis
Daily Chart
The energy-commodity is still not out of its descending trend when looking at how solid the Daily Channel is.
The 50-Day MA acted once again as a major point for sellers to enter. If current momentum continues strong, the next step could be a test of the 2025 lows ($55.285) which also coincides with the lows of the Channel.
The Daily RSI also formed a concrete selling sign, as momentum tried to test the neutral level but rejected it lower. Keep an eye on such formations in RSI which can render strong signals.
For now, shorter-timeframes may indicate an earlier stop in the selling. Let’s take a closer look
4H Chart and Technical Levels
Levels to place on your WTI charts:
Resistance Levels
- Key September Resistance $65 to $66
- May range Resistance $63 to $64
- $60.90 Past Week highs
- $58.265 short-timeframe pivot level
- May Range lows support $59.00 to $60.50 (Broken, now Major Pivot)
Support Levels
- Higher bound of 2025 support $57.00 to $57.30 (testing)
- Oct 20 lows $56.38
- $55 to $55.70 low 2025 Support
1H Chart
The shorter timeframe shows a clear evolution within an Hourly Bear Channel, contained within the higher timeframe sequence.
Now testing its lows, some hesitant mean-reversion attempts to take place.
This comes at multiple confluences with the higher timeframe support coming close, but no signs of reversal are shown.
To get an immediate momentum guide, look at the current 1H Candle:
- Above its highs ($57.60), a reversal higher has high chances of materializing.
- Holding current levels adds more chance towards a lower break (look at the session lows at $57.25)
Some spikes could also take place as the geopolitical developments occur. Therefore watch your risk!
One of my theories was also one of a potential sell-the-peace rumours, buy the peace-news. But is still for now a bit farfetched.
Safe Trades!
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About the Author
Elior Manier
Market Analyst
Elior brings over seven years of experience in financial markets to our analyst team. Since 2018, he has actively engaged in observing, charting, and trading, driven by his passion for mastering market dynamics. With a profound understanding of the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces that shape market movements, Elior focuses on analysing the impact of breaking news, market sentiment, and critical economic data releases on trading flows.
As a versatile analyst, he contributes powerful insights to the team, effectively integrating geopolitical and technical analysis to provide clear and comprehensive market perspectives.
Prior to joining our team, Elior honed his expertise as a Fixed Income Trader and Market Analyst at the Montreal Exchange.
Elior brings over seven years of experience in financial markets to our analyst team. Since 2018, he has actively engaged in observing, charting, and trading, driven by his passion for mastering market dynamics. With a profound understanding of the geopolitical and macroeconomic forces that shape market movements, Elior focuses on analysing the impact of breaking news, market sentiment, and critical economic data releases on trading flows.
As a versatile analyst, he contributes powerful insights to the team, effectively integrating geopolitical and technical analysis to provide clear and comprehensive market perspectives.
Prior to joining our team, Elior honed his expertise as a Fixed Income Trader and Market Analyst at the Montreal Exchange.
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